← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Getafe CF win | 66% | 55% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.64 | value: +15% |
| Levante UD win | 14% | 20% | 7.00 | value: +42% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Levante UD +1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Getafe CF +1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 41% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 59% | 2.25 | value: +32% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |