← Primera Division 2019-20 · Thu, Jul 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 65% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.87 | value: +11% |
| Levante UD win | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −1 | 56% | 1.75 |
| Levante UD −1 | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 54% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 46% | 2.35 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 28' | ⚽ | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 36' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rafinha Alcântara · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Levante UD |
| 59' | 🟥 | Jorge Miramón · Levante UD |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nolito · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nolito · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nolito · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 258.00 |
| 868.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1566.44 | 1578.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.00 | -14.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 5.17 | 4.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.52 | — |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |