← Primera Division 2019-20 · Thu, Jul 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 65% | 67% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.29 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 13% | 14% | 8.08 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Getafe CF −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 48% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 52% | 2.14 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | David Timor · Getafe CF |
| 15' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Éder Militão · Real Madrid CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 🟨 |
| Mariano Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 489.00 | 1400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1843.10 | 1702.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.93 | -17.81 |
| eye test v1 | 1.53 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 71.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 60.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | -1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.31 | 25.21 |
| state index | 1.52 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |