← Primera Division 2019-20 · Tue, Jun 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 56% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 19% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid −0.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| FC Barcelona −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.04 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Diego Costa · FC Barcelona |
| 17' | 🟨 | Marc-André Ter Stegen · FC Barcelona |
| 18' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 35' | 🟨 | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 51' | 🟨 | Felipe · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 80' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Lemar · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1125.00 |
| 3134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1879.47 | 1784.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.20 | 26.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 69.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.47 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 24.94 |
| state index | 1.45 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.94 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |