← Primera Division 2019-20 · Tue, Jun 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 39% | 40% | 2.54 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 32% | 31% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 27' | ⚽ | Cucho Hernández · Mallorca |
| 40' | ⚽ | Alejandro Pozo · Mallorca |
| 48' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 60' | ⚽ | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gabriel Fernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Iberostar Estadi |
| 🟨 |
| Fran Gámez · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1186.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1541.25 | 1665.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.63 | 30.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 26.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 26.12 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |