← Primera Division 2019-20 · Mon, Jun 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 40% | 43% | 2.44 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 28% | 30% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 37% | 2.73 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 13' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Getafe CF |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Chema · Getafe CF |
| 55' | ⚽ | Adnan Januzaj · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alexander Isak · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 68' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 79' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Getafe CF |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 🟨 |
| Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1397.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1695.78 | 1634.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.25 | -32.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| league points | 49.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 25.42 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |