← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 71% | 62% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 24% | 5.16 | value: +23% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 10% | 14% | 9.50 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +1.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 20' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 34' | 🟨 | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 50' | ⚽ | Fedor Smolov · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 67' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 🟨 |
| Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 1122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1658.98 | 1964.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.29 | 10.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| league points | 33.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 2.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 29.42 |
| state index | 0.75 | 1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | 1.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |