← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 27, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Athletic Club win | 53% | 65% | 1.80 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.49 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 18% | 12% | 5.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mallorca −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 52% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 48% | 2.50 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand