← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Jun 21, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 51% | 43% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 20% | 28% | 4.88 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 56% | 1.49 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 44% | 2.80 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Jeison Murillo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 15' | 🟨 | Lucas Pérez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 16' | 🟨 | Okay Yokuşlu · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 27' | 🟥 | Martín Aguirregabiria · Deportivo Alavés |
| 40' | ⚽ | Rafinha Alcântara · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 41' | ⚽ | Rafinha Alcântara · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Nolito · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 86' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 233.00 |
| 417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1553.36 | 1582.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.81 | 15.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.37 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.00 | — |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |