← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 69% | 76% | 1.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.55 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 10% | 7% | 10.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valladolid −1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid −1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.21 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |