← Primera Division 2019-20 · Tue, Jun 16, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 69% | 63% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 5.04 | value: +17% |
| Mallorca win | 12% | 14% | 9.00 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Villarreal CF −1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Mallorca −1.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 47% | 2.23 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |