← Primera Division 2019-20 · Mon, Jun 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 52% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Granada win | 22% | 25% | 4.40 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Granada −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Edgar González · Real Betis Balompié |
| 29' | ⚽ | Carlos Fernández · Granada |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jesús Vallejo · Granada |
| 52' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Real Betis Balompié |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Granada |
| 69' | 🟨 | — · Granada |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Canales · Real Betis Balompié |
| 88' | ⚽ | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roberto Soldado · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rui Silva · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 14.00 |
| 745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1602.33 | 1616.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.69 | 39.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.30 | — |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |