← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Mar 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 52% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.32 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 19% | 23% | 5.25 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 58% | 1.46 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 42% | 2.87 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Getafe CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rubén Blanco · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fedor Smolov · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gabriel Fernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 82' |
| 🟨 |
| Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 82' | 🟥 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 1283.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1789.63 | 1628.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.25 | 27.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.68 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.59 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |