← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 37% | 40% | 2.62 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 34% | 29% | 2.87 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 29% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 71% | 55% | 1.36 | fair |
| Over | 29% | 45% | 3.31 | value: +50% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Athletic Club |
| 26' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Athletic Club |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Pérez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Deportivo Alavés |
| 31' | 🟨 | Dani García · Athletic Club |
| 32' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 33' | 🟨 | Martín Aguirregabiria · Deportivo Alavés |
| 52' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pere Pons · Deportivo Alavés |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 298.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1567.41 | 1617.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.33 | -41.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |