← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 16, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 64% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.17 | value: +11% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 13% | 13% | 7.84 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sevilla FC −1 | 50% | 1.99 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −1 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.02 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |