← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.60 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 21% | 34% | 4.68 | value: +60% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 46% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 54% | 2.11 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |