← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 86% | 88% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 9.82 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 4% | 3% | 26.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −2.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Barcelona −2.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 63% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 37% | 3.60 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Arturo Vidal · FC Barcelona |
| 56' | ⚽ | Pere Pons · Deportivo Alavés |
| 66' | 🟨 | Aleix Vidal · Deportivo Alavés |
| 67' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Deportivo Alavés |
| 69' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 74' | 🟨 | Martín Aguirregabiria · Deportivo Alavés |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 88' |
| 🟨 |
| Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 933.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1977.31 | 1638.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.04 | 7.60 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 36.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 2.83 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.85 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.01 | 26.08 |
| state index | 1.33 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |