← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesús Gil
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 59% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.05 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 17% | 17% | 5.97 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +1 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Sevilla FC +1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +5% |
| Under | 49% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Diego Carlos · Sevilla FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Fernando · Sevilla FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Fran Gámez · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 62' | 🟨 | Iddrisu Baba · Mallorca |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Sedlar · Mallorca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Iberostar Estadi |
| coach days | 994.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1500.49 | 1715.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.14 | -22.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 5.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | 2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.76 | 27.15 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |