← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 60% | 56% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.15 | value: +9% |
| Mallorca win | 16% | 17% | 6.20 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Rafinha Alcântara · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 33' | 🟨 | Joseph Aidoo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 71' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Mallorca |
| 74' | 🟨 | Santi Mina · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 78' |
| 🟥 |
| Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Manolo Reina · Mallorca |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 44.00 | 988.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1533.19 | 1497.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.77 | -10.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.84 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.00 | 22.76 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |