← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 56% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
| Eibar win | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eibar −0.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 42% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 58% | 2.04 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 25' | ⚽ | Robin Le Normand · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 35' | ⚽ | Papakouli Diop · Eibar |
| 41' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | 🟨 | Papakouli Diop · Eibar |
| 47' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 57' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 72' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Eibar |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 80' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 364.00 | 1613.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1720.53 | 1646.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.27 | -26.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 23.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 30.84 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |