← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: David Medié
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 49% | 43% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 21% | 26% | 4.60 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Valladolid −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 44% | 2.72 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Valladolid |
| 55' | 🟨 | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 63' | 🟨 | Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Valladolid |
| 77' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Valladolid |
| 77' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joan Sastre · Mallorca |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| 🟨 |
| Aleix Febas · Mallorca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 581.00 | 946.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1568.07 | 1508.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.11 | 16.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 4.61 | 2.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.96 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |