← Primera Division 2019-20 · Thu, Oct 31, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: José González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +8% |
| Granada win | 17% | 18% | 6.04 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Getafe CF −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 58% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 42% | 3.00 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 41' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Maxime Gonalons · Granada |
| 57' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Granada |
| 74' | ⚽ | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 81' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 🟨 |
| David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ramon Azeez · Granada |
| 88' | ⚽ | David Timor · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xabier Etxeita · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1155.00 | 517.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1662.47 | 1629.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.17 | 13.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 4.11 | 4.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.63 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |