← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Oct 6, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 66% | 63% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 14% | 19% | 7.38 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona −1 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Sevilla FC −1 | 45% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 38% | 2.78 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Sevilla FC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 32' | ⚽ | Arturo Vidal · FC Barcelona |
| 34' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · FC Barcelona |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 64' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 78' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 87' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 🟥 |
| Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | 🟥 | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 857.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1896.04 | 1694.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.82 | 0.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 8.21 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.14 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 27.92 |
| state index | 1.21 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.02 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |