← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 22, 10:00 AM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.57 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 17% | 18% | 5.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Getafe CF −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 43% | 2.52 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Iddrisu Baba · Getafe CF |
| 32' | 🟨 | Joan Sastre · Mallorca |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fabri · Mallorca |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jason · Getafe CF |
| 63' | ⚽ | Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 77' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| Ante Budimir · Mallorca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Aleix Febas · Mallorca |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Iddrisu Baba · Mallorca |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lumor Agbenyenu · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1116.00 | 904.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1662.09 | 1504.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.29 | -9.99 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 2.71 | 8.63 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.96 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |