← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 15, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 47% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.30 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 23% | 30% | 4.20 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sevilla FC +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 49% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 51% | 2.53 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Oliver Burke · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Borja Sainz · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Sevilla FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1581.75 | 1684.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.88 | 38.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 15.75 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.92 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |