← Primera Division 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 61% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.19 | value: +11% |
| Granada win | 15% | 14% | 6.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Granada −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Santi Cazorla · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Santi Cazorla · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Fede Vico · Granada |
| 53' | ⚽ | Moi Gómez · Villarreal CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Germán Sánchez · Granada |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Rubén Peña · Granada |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | André Zambo Anguissa · Villarreal CF |
| 73' | ⚽ | Samuel Chukwueze · Villarreal CF |
| 75' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| ⚽ |
| Roberto Soldado · Granada |
| 81' | ⚽ | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 228.00 | 442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1644.73 | 1552.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.23 | 20.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.58 | — |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |