← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 73% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 21% | 6.38 | value: +32% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 12% | 16% | 8.09 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 79.00 |
| 748.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1771.81 | 1567.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.53 | -27.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 68.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.87 | — |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |