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Eibar 2–2 FC Barcelona

← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
FC Barcelona win59%61%1.65fair
Draw21%20%4.55fair
Eibar win20%19%4.96fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Marc Cucurella · Eibar
31'⚽Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona
32'⚽Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona
33'🟨Iván Ramis · Eibar
42'🟨Nélson Semedo · FC Barcelona
44'🟨Pablo De Blasis · Eibar
45'⚽Pablo De Blasis · Eibar
80'🟨José Ángel · Eibar
83'🟨Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar
83'🟨Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
15Shots6
8On target3
5Corners2
11Fouls3
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarFC Barcelona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIpurua Municipal Stadium
coach days
1418.00
717.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.641.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.05
dominance (last 5)0.480.59
elo1592.321927.12
elo momentum (last 5)-5.27-14.27
eye test v1-0.810.97
eye trend v10.08-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)58.1054.50
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
keeper form v10.690.65
league points46.0086.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2087.40
possession avg (last 5)52.0066.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.38
season ppg1.242.32
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.405.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6014.40
skill v1-0.352.21
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.006.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.20
squad age—26.79
state index0.131.31
sterile dominance v10.241.59
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60