← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 45% | 56% | 2.17 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.08 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 23% | 19% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Dani García · Athletic Club |
| 29' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joris Gnagnon · Sevilla FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 78.00 |
| 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1652.30 | 1625.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.15 | -0.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| league points | 56.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.52 | — |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |