← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 54% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 22% | 23% | 4.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days |
| 443.00 |
| 2725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1575.31 | 1794.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.53 | -17.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 43.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.07 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |