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Levante UD 2–2 Club Atlético de Madrid

← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Club Atlético de Madrid win54%54%1.81fair
Draw24%23%4.10fair
Levante UD win22%23%4.34fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Erick Cabaco · Levante UD
36'⚽Roger Martí · Levante UD
39'🟨Francisco Montero · Club Atlético de Madrid
51'🟥Ángel Correa · Club Atlético de Madrid
68'⚽Rodri · Club Atlético de Madrid
79'⚽Sergio Camello · Club Atlético de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
17Shots17
7On target8
6Corners4
9Fouls7
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDClub Atlético de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.600.63
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCiutat de València
coach days
443.00
2725.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.290.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.390.50
elo1575.311794.99
elo momentum (last 5)39.53-17.18
eye test v1-0.15-0.20
eye trend v1-0.08-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)52.0054.70
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v1—0.78
league points43.0075.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6082.80
possession avg (last 5)38.4052.40
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.200.25
season ppg1.162.03
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.0011.40
skill v1-1.430.78
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
squad age—24.07
state index0.580.51
sterile dominance v1-0.990.61
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20