← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 38% | 39% | 2.58 | fair |
| Leganes win | 34% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 55' | ⚽ | Martín Mantovani · Huesca |
| 83' | ⚽ | Martín Mantovani · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days |
| 229.00 |
| 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1521.69 | 1568.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.56 | -10.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |