← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 61% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.43 | value: +4% |
| Villarreal CF win | 17% | 15% | 5.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF |
| 22' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 22' | 🟨 | Andrés Fernández · Villarreal CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Vicente Iborra · Villarreal CF |
| 46' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Villarreal CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 76' | ⚽ | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 87' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days | 989.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1668.81 | 1642.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.35 | 15.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 58.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.62 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.23 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.18 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |