← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 73% | 56% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 5.94 | value: +24% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 11% | 23% | 9.12 | value: +111% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 39' | 🟨 | Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 71' | ⚽ | Álvaro Medrán · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 79' | 🟨 | — · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Stole Dimitrievski · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 78.00 |
| 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1568.47 | 1485.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.01 | -16.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.36 | — |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |