← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 44% | 42% | 2.21 | fair |
| Girona win | 28% | 32% | 3.47 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Kévin Soni · Girona |
| 40' | ⚽ | Mubarak Wakaso · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · Deportivo Alavés |
| 56' | 🟨 | Diego Rolán · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 64' | 🟨 | Carles Planas · Girona |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jonathan Calleri · Deportivo Alavés |
| 86' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| coach days | 17.00 | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.88 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1561.62 | 1513.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.84 | -22.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| league points | 47.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.27 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |