← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 62% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +11% |
| Eibar win | 17% | 14% | 5.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Eibar |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 131.00 |
| 1411.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1634.96 | 1599.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.26 | 3.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.23 | — |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |