← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 64% | 72% | 1.51 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.87 | fair |
| Huesca win | 16% | 11% | 6.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Juanpi Añor · Huesca |
| 61' | 🟨 | Xabier Etxeita · Huesca |
| 64' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · Huesca |
| 64' | 🟨 | Adrián Diéguez · Huesca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Real Betis Balompié |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Melero · Huesca |
| 76' | 🟥 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zouhair Feddal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luisinho · Huesca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 741.00 |
| 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1559.90 | 1529.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.98 | 15.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 44.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |