← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 66% | 66% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.47 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 13% | 11% | 7.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Getafe CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Arturo Vidal · FC Barcelona |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Arturo Vidal · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Mauro Arambarri · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 710.00 |
| 983.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1922.80 | 1673.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.53 | 11.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 83.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 60.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.16 | -2.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.79 | — |
| state index | 1.30 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.59 | -1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |