← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 49% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.70 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 24% | 29% | 4.01 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 58' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 70' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 75' | 🟨 | Aleix Vidal · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Thomas Lemar · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 2719.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1800.46 | 1646.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.67 | -40.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.53 |
| league points | 74.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.26 | 28.52 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |