← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 48% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.43 | value: +14% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 24% | 23% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 17' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ryad Boudebouz · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 36' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 40' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Beñat Etxebarria · Athletic Club |
| 61' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 64' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Athletic Club |
| 89' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 162.00 |
| 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1614.91 | 1579.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.21 | 34.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| league points | 50.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.02 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |