← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 37% | 31% | 2.64 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 33% | 35% | 2.97 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.24 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 21' | ⚽ | Waldo Rubio Marin · Valladolid |
| 30' | 🟨 | Dani García · Athletic Club |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Athletic Club |
| 35' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
| 50' | 🟨 | Borja · Valladolid |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Toni Villa · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 399.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1565.54 | 1704.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.57 | -2.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| league points | 35.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 28.56 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |