← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 52% | 58% | 1.89 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 22% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Mariano Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 11' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jesús Vallejo · Real Madrid CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ramiro Funes Mori · Villarreal CF |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mariano Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 15 |
| 11 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 65.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1787.42 | 1639.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.75 | 13.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 65.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 27.74 |
| state index | 0.89 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |