← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 26% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marc Bartra · Real Betis Balompié |
| 58' | 🟨 | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 67' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 79' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1404.00 |
| 734.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1592.03 | 1567.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.49 | -23.38 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 43.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |