← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 49% | 45% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 23% | 27% | 4.17 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| coach days | 337.00 | 2711.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1581.14 | 1826.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.63 | 10.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| league points | 44.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.26 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |