← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 65% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.88 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 16% | 13% | 6.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Jesús Vallejo · Real Madrid CF |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mario Suárez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mariano Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Uche Agbo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| coach days |
| 58.00 |
| 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1492.30 | 1803.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.09 | -6.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.24 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |