← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +4% |
| Girona win | 25% | 24% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 62' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 331.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1518.61 | 1685.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.32 | 18.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| league points | 34.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.69 | 28.52 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |