← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 82% | 82% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.55 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 6% | 6% | 17.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 58' | 🟨 | Rúben Vezo · Levante UD |
| 62' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · FC Barcelona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Coke · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 695.00 | 422.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1947.64 | 1553.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.07 | 2.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 80.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.30 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.09 | — |
| state index | 1.62 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.59 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |