← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 65% | 68% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.22 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 12% | 13% | 7.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.62 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 147.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1629.56 | 1577.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.22 | -29.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| league points | 49.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |