← Primera Division 2018-19 · Thu, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 37% | 33% | 2.62 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 34% | 41% | 2.85 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days |
| 145.00 |
| 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1593.10 | 1633.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.22 | -16.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.22 | 28.09 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |