← Primera Division 2018-19 · Thu, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 78% | 76% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.22 | value: +4% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 8% | 10% | 11.48 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alejandro Gálvez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 52' | 🟨 | José Pozo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 55' | ⚽ | Quincy Promes · Sevilla FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 86' | ⚽ | Bryan Gil · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 55.00 |
| 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1677.21 | 1500.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.47 | 11.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| league points | 52.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.52 | — |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |