← Primera Division 2018-19 · Thu, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days |
| 966.00 |
| 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1674.71 | 1805.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.61 | -2.07 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 54.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.91 |
| state index | 0.58 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |